Tag Archives: international trade

Global economic downturns are amplified by global communications and consolidation of media

Economic downturns are the result of coincident reductions in financial investments. They are marked by larger numbers of companies cutting back on their budgets, and by large numbers of investors who perceive value to be falling. When one individual makes a decision, it has negligible impact on the market (unless it’s Buffet!), but when large numbers of individuals act at the same time, the market moves. The more people are making the same decision at the same time, the equilibrium is shocked by more, too. In other words, the invisible hand becomes an invisible linebacker; pushing harder.

This means that when larger groups of people are influenced in the same ways by the same media, then the market and the economy are going to swing with greater magnitude.

Social inconsistency provides a healthy dissonance in the economic markets. Different consumer confidence levels and uncorrelated investment views ensure that the economic growth remains relatively stable. Just like many stocks in an index reduce the volatility of the index relative to the average volatility of the index components.

So, ironically, by improving the communications tools that make our economy function better, we are also increasing the magnitude and danger of economic downturns.

Innovation in the 21st Century

The rate of innovation will continue to increase as communications and transportation help us to conquer time and space. The value of innovation will become quantifiable and attributable – leading to a renaissance in most fields, and a new breed of professional innovators currently being born as a new sector in the consulting industry.

Artificially Intelligent Program Trading System


Data Sources

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Parallelized Analytics Agents

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Signal Aggregation analytics

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Webserver

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Trading Platforms and Reporting

Arbitrages – even of very small marginal size – could be exploited based on a large number of artificially intelligent program trading systems mining historical and currently released information for financial products and correlated factors. Using multiple signalling agents, aggregated signals can be calculated by weighting each agent based on the statistical strength of historical signal combinations. Using this type of design, it is easy to develop multiple agents that are completely independent and confidential. Multiple agents can be developed concurrently, tested, and introduced to the aggregate system at any rate.

The process of the elimination of arbitrage opportunities will create vast concentrations of wealth within the companies that embrace the tools that automate this process. As new information sources become available for analysis, new arbitrages may be identified with increasing complexity. The abstraction of trading systems to automaically test and integrate new data sources will mark the last decades of financially advantageous investment in hedge funds. After that time, return will be a stochastic function of expected risk.

Competition Matrix

An interactive competition matrix for buyers and sellers of any good or service would improve efficiencies for both. Traditional search engines are weak for goods and services. With a competition matrix, sellers could list their goods or services with unlimited flexible descriptive fields. Standard field sets would form for popular goods and services. Buyers could indicate their prefernces for characteristics of goods or services and see a competitive table of available goods or services matching their criteria. Links to – or direct – commerce would enable simplified access to the selected good or service. With user driven fielding, the system would naturally and organically follow supply and demand into any number of increasingly specific goods and services. System maintenance would be minimal, if any.