Category Archives: Public Policy

Global long term population decline

Bloomberg reports on Ben Wattenberg’s book “Fewer“. This long term trend appears to have the academic rigor of reliable thinking, but the global financial impact is dwarfed by another long-term global population trend toward free markets.

Generational decreases in total population are occurring at a slower rate than the growth rate of the number of people living in free market societies. The number of people who are participating in the global economy has increased by 3 billion since 1990, and the shrinking population effect is negligible relative to trends of that magnitude.

For investors, this probably means that global consumption will continue to increase even if the population as a whole may slowly decline.

Historic Debt will lead to Inflation

I’ve talked about the debt and inflation before, but the following might scare you:

Although the level of deficit is the largest in history, it is not the largest when measured as a percentage of GDP. The current deficit is about 4.3% of GDP. This is high by historic standards, but has been exceeded in 6 of the fiscal years since 1962. BUT the private sector is larger than it has ever been, and issuing more debt than ever before. Total $US debt when combining private and public debt is about $35 trillion, or 300% of GDP.

Don’t think that inflation is soley a function of public debt. No, foreign investment is a competition among all capital securities, and it is net US debt interest owed as a percentage of GDP (as well as US GDP as a percentage of global production, and other factors) that underly inflation.

Population Density and Political Affiliation

These are some of the best election maps I’ve seen. They demonstrate a very strong relationship in the 2004 Presidential election, and I’d love to hear some insight:

Why is population density so clearly related to political affiliation?

Should we be surprised that progressive politics are so highly related to economic progress? What can we learn from that?

Why are such large parts of the population voting against their financial self-interests? Wealthy cities and the major financial centers are voting against the party that will lower their capital gains and dividend taxes. Financially troubled states are voting against the party that will provide national health care and invest in their children’s educations.

Is morality really the question? Massachusetts has the lowest divorce rate of any of the 50 states. And Texas has the highest. Are words more important than action? How is it that speaking softly and doing the right thing can be painted so badly?

Finally, how is it that the kindness, thoughtfulness, hard work, and generosity of the Democratic Party can be portayed as weakness? How is it that the Republican Party with those same qualities is portrayed as heartless? Is it still about cowboys vs. indians, suits vs. hippies, us vs. them? Has anyone noticed that we’re on the same team and there are plenty of real bad guys out there?

An attempt at political moral philosophy

Society is imperfect and its improvement merits our best efforts. It is our moral duty to improve and redesign it for the benefit of all. The primary purpose of government is to support the rights of the governed; the sum of these rights scores the Goodness of a society.

Government should not rely on morality, but encourage, through law and incentives, moral behavior. The secret to morals is love—going beyond your own self, expanding the self to include others. To be Good, aim to imagine comprehensively; put yourself in the place of all others, their pains and pleasures your own. In this way, personal sacrifice for the greater good is no sacrifice at all.

Take no teaching on trust. Think and speak sincerely on the meaning of life. Do not get bogged down in defending an inferior idea, but define your position by that which you reason to be correct. Argue with ideas, not people.

Do not have faith in your convictions, but rather have faith in your wisdom. Form your self-image not by your positions, but rather by your wisdom—be eager to improve and refine your perspective.

Book Review – Intellectuals, by Paul Johnson

Paul Johnson approaches a very interesting topic: he inspects the lives of 12 intellectual giants starting with Rousseau (1712-78), and compares their teachings with their behaviors.

His premise is a bit awkward. He states that “the rise of the secular intellectual has been a key factor in shaping the modern world”, and that “seen against the long perspective of history, [this] is in many ways a new phenomenon.” He claims that these intellectuals are distinguished by their willingness to forgo tradition and faith, reinventing society from first principles. This of course assumes that traditions and faiths themselves were not reinventions of society from first principles.

He maintains a common theme throughout the biographies: intellectuals are leftist egomaniacs who promote political agendas under an inappropriate guise of truth, virtue, and humanitarianism.

I had a hard time putting this book down, but not because I enjoyed it. Johnson offers a counterpoint to some generally held perspectives. But in the end, I felt his arguments unconvincing. Most of the implications Johnson draws from his biographical examples are inappropriate in my view.

Some specific criticisms:

  1. Talking about the advantages and disadvantages of competing political government systems does not make someone a leftist or a socialist. Philosophers and political theorists should be expected to be prolific in these topics. Because of this, numerous examples may exist where an author talks favorably about characteristics of socialism, for example. Quoted in isolation, these statements can be misleading, and do not comprise a valid insight into the author’s personal political agenda.
  2. A person should not be held to a perfect standard of honesty and virtue even if they publicly discuss the philosophy of truth and virtue. With great renown comes a volume of historical criticism to reference—focusing on the criticism is not likely to paint a completely honest picture.
  3. Promoting the expansion of public social welfare programs does not run contrary to American capitalist democracy—public education and social security are obvious examples. The expansion of public programs may be leftist, but it is misleading to label it as communist or socialist.
  4. Johnson uses the label “Intellectuals” to mean those political and social thinkers that have foregone hieratic cultures to promote their own moral or ideological innovations. By this definition, his thesis that Intellectuals are audacious liberals is then true by tautology. A more appropriate use of the label would reveal that conservative and religious scholars, scientists, lawyers, and a large number of other people would quickly require Johnson’s thesis to be abandoned.
  5. 12 examples do not make a general truth. More than that, implying that Intellectuals are somehow bad because of what they said and how they lived is morally questionable. Cultural intolerance, religious evangelism, and inherited class elitism have sparked the lion’s share of global violence in recorded human history. Audacious liberals founded America.

In summary, I’m left unsatisfied. I feel like Johnson has a deeper thesis left unrevealed. He stands in judgment over these 12 intellectuals, but fails to complete his thought. What is his real point? I follow his criticisms, but I don’t see that he is offering any remedy. I feel like Johnson secretly wants to promote hieratic culture under the same guise of truth, science, and virtue.