Category Archives: Public Policy

Human Responsibility

The Human Rights movements of the 20th century will evolve into the Human Responsibility movements of the 21st. Just as the moral masses rose to fight battles of freedom, representation, protection, and equality, new moral questions of responsibility will arise as paramount. We will be forced to confront and socially decide upon subjective and highly contested issues in the use of technologies, preservation of environments, and rules of trade and labor. Harold T. Shapiro *64 is an early hero in this movement, speaking to thousands:

In the 21st Century, scientists and engineers will continue to inform us regarding what we can do with our ever-expanding knowledge base, but it is our shared responsibility to decide what we should do. And deciding what we should do is the greatest responsibility we all bear as we move forward together.

It will be a moral call to arms. Factions will grow in much the same ways that they have around abortion questions. Large numbers of issues will arise, and be grouped by medical, moral, philosophical, religious, technical, and other similarities. Specialized factions will fight for ultimate personal freedom to act, at least upon themselves, without restraint. While others will fight for the protection of others, even to the great restraint of personal freedoms. And there will be a majority in between.

Communities will form, and governments will be organized around the constituents’ answers to these questions. Those countries that embrace the most freedoms, particularly for businesses, will have financial advantages over those that embrace the most protections of others. This imbalance will allow particular countries to benefit for decades at the detriment of the whole, as their own incentives are not aligned with the benefit of the whole, but instead with their own short term economic benefit.

Preparing for music rights protection on the internet

Napster users on the night of the first injunction found downloads crawling as peers were scrambling to loot the music warehouses. Consumer preparations for the fall of Napster indicate that many worry that they will have to pay for music downloads in the future.

On the other side of the coin, the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA) is looking for new channels for online music sales that will allow them to capture as much value from their music portfolios as possible. With their music less available, they believe consumers will pay for their recordings on the internet, just as they do with traditional media like tapes and CDs.

The Internet is preparing for the fall of Napster as well. Many DRM providers, AnIdea Corporation included, now make it possible for record labels (or anyone else) to list and sell their music online. Content markets for Music are attached it to tracking, accounting, and billing systems. AnIdea.com makes many of these services free for everybody. Each listing is managed by the music owners, including any promotional materials. Distribution occurs in a manner that finally compensates the music owners for their sales.

The Music Industry and the Internet are constantly evolving under the prevailing winds of the markets and their legal frameworks, and how we acquire music is far from settled. Some things seem clear, though: that music will continue to be protected by copyrights, that people love internet music distribution, and that technology will adapt to fit the markets and the laws.

It is probably just a matter of time before media players come with fingerprinting software that analyses the waveform, generates an ID, and compares it against a public database of waveform IDs. A system like this could be used to apply copyright protection to the files you think you got away with. In other words, the free files you have downloaded for free from Napster might someday require a fee to play. Same file, new price.

Financial Markets Evolve

Arbitrages – even of very small marginal size – will be eliminated based on a large number of artificially intelligent program trading systems that will mine the historical and currently released information identifying and exploiting trends. The process of the elimination of arbitrage opportunities will create vast concentrations of wealth within the companies that embrace the tools that automate this process. As new information sources become available for analysis, new arbitrages may be identified with increasing complexity. The abstraction of trading systems to automaically test and integrate new data sources will mark the last decades of financially advantageous investment in hedge funds. After that time, return will be a stochastic function of expected risk.

Innovation in the 21st Century

The rate of innovation will continue to increase as communications and transportation help us to conquer time and space. The value of innovation will become quantifiable and attributable – leading to a renaissance in most fields, and a new breed of professional innovators currently being born as a new sector in the consulting industry.

Community in the 21st Century

Communities will be based on areas of interest, discussion, belief, and informational interaction, rather than physical proximity and race. Individuals will be members of many unrelated communities.

Community sets may overlap in telling ways when looking at large numbers of people. This data might be used for suggesting additional community associations and interpersonal relationships with shared interests.

Markets and marketing will be based on these communities.