Category Archives: Public Policy

The Changing Face of Evolution

Genetic codes in our cells provide the system upon which information is stored and algorithms are performed to determine our perceptions. Similarly, software codes provide the system upon which information is stored and algorithms are performed, effectively doing the same thing. Major industries will focus on the processes of evolving these systems (and the interface that enables communications between them). It is purely our life, and perception of it, that defines our demands, and so these two areas of business will form the dominant industries of the next century.

Computer interfaces will become natural extensions of our senses, integrated with device controls that allow us to interact with our environment and each other using and broadcasting information. This will increase the effectiveness, efficiency, and diversity of communication as well as giving us control over network devices, systems, and resources.

The U.S. Government should implement an Investment Company, Financed by a Federal Corporate Income Tax

Technology has changed market dynamics, and new economies of scale are making it increasingly hard for small businesses to compete.  National and international communications and transportation have increased the global nature of businesses, so scale and international optimization of supply chains make enormous advantage for the largest businesses. Another important example is the nearly infinite ratio of fixed to marginal costs in information businesses that leads to increasing pressure toward consolidation.  Meanwhile, the value of public companies shifting from 40% intangible assets in 1996 to 75% in 2000. These forces push toward anticompetitive oligopolies, and are newly strengthened because of the new communications and transportation infrastructures.

Unfortunately, when you combine the globalizing economy with massive consolidation pressures, the natural equilibrium is a monopoly.  A monopoly can act in its own best interest and harm consumers.  America has a long history of working to ensure consumer markets remain competitive.

If you want to reduce the burden on the Federal Trade Commission lawyers, then we should implement a structural incentive that acts to offset any negative changes in the economic dynamics.   Specifically, we could create a new incentive for competitive markets.

This can be achieved with a progressive federal corporate income tax that finances an investment company and, in turn, finances companies that can improve competitive pricing or innovate.   The progressive tax could begin at a high profit level so that competition would be encouraged. Not a very popular suggestion among stockholders in the largest corporations, I suspect, but the benefit in the long run would be very great.

Necessity is the mother of invention, and monopolists can sustain their position with far less innovation than occurs in competitive markets. We will see advancements in communications, transportation, environmental protections, health care, entertainment, safety, and even life span. These innovations will occur inevitably, but it is our decision as a society how we structure ourselves to best approach this evolution.

Note – The Government-financed investment company should probably be independent in a similar model to the federal reserve.

Note – The competitive application for the funds of the Government-financed investment company avoids the incentive problems associated with socialist policies.

Note – The investment company would consist of many competing portfolios, managed by accountable teams, and with regular culling of underperformers.

Note – This would be a particularly effective economic stimulus mechanism because it supports high velocity of money in productive markets and more directly drives employment.

Note – The enormous potential financial gain from the investment company would be reinvested and used to reduce corporate, individual, and other tax rates.  It has the potential to create a self-financing government.

Note – The investments of the investment company would be direct – new equity or debt capital – not the purchase of existing securities.

 

 

Contract and Legal Reference Engine

An instant and well documented history of legal rulings – based on fact sets, and legal documents for typical related work – could be produced through information management of historical legal documents. The system would format contracts of a firm with fields that identify important entities and information in each contract (For example, the company later referred to as “COMPANY” would have a corresponding database table field). Then the interface would allow a lawyer – or anyone – to enter information for any fields they thought were relevant, and the system would identify the contracts and cases that are most similar, providing appropriate pre-populated contracts and historical rulings when available. This system would vastly improve efficiencies in the legal industry. In addition, it could provide a tool for judges to research other decisions, and ask for public opinion with a forum for discussion threads. Within a law firm, laywers could enter case or client information and select what kinds of results they would like to receive (Contracts, referrences, etc.)

The Future of Productivity and Culture

Productivity will continue to increase – and at an increasing rate. This trend inevitably leads us to the average person only working a small amount to support their basic needs. While this will be true on average, in reality we will most likely see a few individuals working very productively and supporting the needs of growing groups of underemployed people.

Social safety nets will become easier to support (assuming that the standard of social safety does not increase faster than the improvements in productivity). Vast portions of the population will stop working. Cultural differences will become pronounced as individuals and groups ‘specialize’ in non-work activities. Quality and breadth of entertainment, interpersonal interaction, and self-expression will greatly improve.

There will be a growing conflict between the highly productive individuals and companies and the large numbers of people who are underemployed. Managing this conflict will be a major political task.

Reality, perception, and the media’s effect on the economy

For each of us, perception is reality, and drives our behaviors and investments. The media have strong influence over the perceptions of communities, and this drives the net investments of time and money in a community.

It is this net investment of time and money that dictates changes in the economy and the community. So those who produce the information that change perceptions can manipulate the reality of the growth of the community. Is a relationship this general something that we want to foster in our own community? Will it lead down the best path for humanity? A major manifestation of this relationship is the growing value of media. Those who control the media can manipulate the users of it by biasing the information flow. Biases often manifest themselves in analysis and selection of content. It is no wonder that the latest tulip bulb incident centered around the technology and media industries that helped to create that boom-bust. Where would we go if we were not biased? Given all the info and allowed to weigh it as we see fit, we would all more independently perceive the world. The range of individuality would increase, while the volatility of consumer confidence over time would fall because correlations in idiosyncratic confidence levels would fall – affecting every cyclical market. If there is such thing as a risk premium, then people are willing to pay to reduce volatility and are effectively indicating that lowering volatility of cyclical markets would be a good thing.

Is religion succumbing to media as the primary influence in the populations’ perceptions of self and community? And if so, are we replacing one set of biases with another? The most important reason to avoid biases is that they possibly influence decisions away from what is right or best. And the development of the community is optimized when large numbers of unbiased (and rational) individuals participate in decision-making.

We are naturally transitioning toward an environment where individuals have more control over their information. The internet is a strong influence on that process. As the barriers to entry continue to fall in the media space, we will have more and more access to varied information. As this happens, we will see new tools arise that allow us to filter, select, and interpret our information. This is an important process in the evolution of our society, and is a necessary step in the transition toward fairness and truth.