Category Archives: Economics

Global economic downturns are amplified by global communications and consolidation of media

Economic downturns are the result of coincident reductions in financial investments. They are marked by larger numbers of companies cutting back on their budgets, and by large numbers of investors who perceive value to be falling. When one individual makes a decision, it has negligible impact on the market (unless it’s Buffet!), but when large numbers of individuals act at the same time, the market moves. The more people are making the same decision at the same time, the equilibrium is shocked by more, too. In other words, the invisible hand becomes an invisible linebacker; pushing harder.

This means that when larger groups of people are influenced in the same ways by the same media, then the market and the economy are going to swing with greater magnitude.

Social inconsistency provides a healthy dissonance in the economic markets. Different consumer confidence levels and uncorrelated investment views ensure that the economic growth remains relatively stable. Just like many stocks in an index reduce the volatility of the index relative to the average volatility of the index components.

So, ironically, by improving the communications tools that make our economy function better, we are also increasing the magnitude and danger of economic downturns.

Commerce in the 21st Century

The weight of value in the goods and services that make up commerce will shift toward the intangible. This includes media, communications, rights, and information services, primarily.

Financial Markets Evolve

Arbitrages – even of very small marginal size – will be eliminated based on a large number of artificially intelligent program trading systems that will mine the historical and currently released information identifying and exploiting trends. The process of the elimination of arbitrage opportunities will create vast concentrations of wealth within the companies that embrace the tools that automate this process. As new information sources become available for analysis, new arbitrages may be identified with increasing complexity. The abstraction of trading systems to automaically test and integrate new data sources will mark the last decades of financially advantageous investment in hedge funds. After that time, return will be a stochastic function of expected risk.

Innovation in the 21st Century

The rate of innovation will continue to increase as communications and transportation help us to conquer time and space. The value of innovation will become quantifiable and attributable – leading to a renaissance in most fields, and a new breed of professional innovators currently being born as a new sector in the consulting industry.

Falling Profit Margins

More availability of information leads to more competition. More Competition leads to lower profit margins.

Higher profit margins will only be possible in businesses with limited competition. The dominant way to legally limit competition is through innovation and protecting intellectual property rights.

Innovators will be rewarded more and more over time.

Over time, information becomes more and more available and interpretable. In this environment, people are able to demand fair compensation with a better and better understanding of what fair is. People will have to be compensated more and more closely to the value of their work. As this happens, profit margins will fall toward the pure value of synergy, however it is defined, and equity valuations will reflect these changes. Whenever employers refuse to meet the demanded minimum compensation for employees, the employee suddenly becomes competition. The economy will transition toward a large number of smaller economic players rather than the small number of large currently dominant players. Existing job roles become commoditized over time as large numbers of players compete profit margins away. The only way to substantially and positively differentiate your profit margins is to do something that is not yet commoditized; in other words, to innovate. The only way to maintain your differentiated position is to protect your existing innovations through patents and secrecy and continue to innovate.

Implications:

  1. In valuing your stock positions in companies, consider how easy it may be to enter their market in the future. Also consider their profit margins with the knowledge that there tends to be a profit squeeze as competition increases.
  2. Record your thoughts if you think that they may be unique and potentially valuable. Nobody else can patent something if you thought of it and recorded it properly first.