Tag Archives: trends

The probability of the extinction of humanity is increasing

As communities overlap more and more, the unanticipated toxins that destroy cultures have a greater likelihood of spreading to other cultures.

When the Roman Empire poisoned itself with lead, for example, it destroyed a large culture, but not everyone. When the plague killed 1/3 of the world’s population, it even impacted the economic prosperity of Africa as the limited trade routes fell apart. If today’s aspartame (or any other component of our environment) were to cause damage to our evolutionary viability, it would vastly destroy the population of the world. Coke, for example, sells to just about every corner of the globe. As this occurs with more foods, drugs, medical procedures, manufacturing byproducts, and societal norms, we increase the likelihood of breaking the chain of humanity.

It may make sense to restrict the propagation of new products at some point in order to protect populations from negative ramifications. It also seems wise to maintain different food and drug administrations in different countries as long as there is unpredictability in long-term implications. The responsibility of the food and drug administration will become more and more important as similar ingredients become a part of the diet of larger and larger part of the population.

Chemical, biological, nuclear, nano-, and genetic weaponry is increasing in effectiveness. It will be possible in the next decades to produce agents that will kill all life with genetic code that matches any set of very specific genetic or other criteria.

This is really scary to me. I don’t know how to stop it. Similar to the way that software viruses and anti-virus software battle for dominance, new weapons and the protections against them will battle for dominance… in this case, with lives on the line. Over time the technology for constructing microscopic, cheap, and effective weapons will become more accessible. Columbine has the potential to be much worse. Assassination could be as easy as sending a nanoterrorist or finding a hair and releasing an airborne virus with a single target. It makes me think something that rarely crosses my mind: that the government should enforce involvement.

Global economic downturns are amplified by global communications and consolidation of media

Economic downturns are the result of coincident reductions in financial investments. They are marked by larger numbers of companies cutting back on their budgets, and by large numbers of investors who perceive value to be falling. When one individual makes a decision, it has negligible impact on the market (unless it’s Buffet!), but when large numbers of individuals act at the same time, the market moves. The more people are making the same decision at the same time, the equilibrium is shocked by more, too. In other words, the invisible hand becomes an invisible linebacker; pushing harder.

This means that when larger groups of people are influenced in the same ways by the same media, then the market and the economy are going to swing with greater magnitude.

Social inconsistency provides a healthy dissonance in the economic markets. Different consumer confidence levels and uncorrelated investment views ensure that the economic growth remains relatively stable. Just like many stocks in an index reduce the volatility of the index relative to the average volatility of the index components.

So, ironically, by improving the communications tools that make our economy function better, we are also increasing the magnitude and danger of economic downturns.

Commerce in the 21st Century

The weight of value in the goods and services that make up commerce will shift toward the intangible. This includes media, communications, rights, and information services, primarily.

Human Responsibility

The Human Rights movements of the 20th century will evolve into the Human Responsibility movements of the 21st. Just as the moral masses rose to fight battles of freedom, representation, protection, and equality, new moral questions of responsibility will arise as paramount. We will be forced to confront and socially decide upon subjective and highly contested issues in the use of technologies, preservation of environments, and rules of trade and labor. Harold T. Shapiro *64 is an early hero in this movement, speaking to thousands:

In the 21st Century, scientists and engineers will continue to inform us regarding what we can do with our ever-expanding knowledge base, but it is our shared responsibility to decide what we should do. And deciding what we should do is the greatest responsibility we all bear as we move forward together.

It will be a moral call to arms. Factions will grow in much the same ways that they have around abortion questions. Large numbers of issues will arise, and be grouped by medical, moral, philosophical, religious, technical, and other similarities. Specialized factions will fight for ultimate personal freedom to act, at least upon themselves, without restraint. While others will fight for the protection of others, even to the great restraint of personal freedoms. And there will be a majority in between.

Communities will form, and governments will be organized around the constituents’ answers to these questions. Those countries that embrace the most freedoms, particularly for businesses, will have financial advantages over those that embrace the most protections of others. This imbalance will allow particular countries to benefit for decades at the detriment of the whole, as their own incentives are not aligned with the benefit of the whole, but instead with their own short term economic benefit.

Financial Markets Evolve

Arbitrages – even of very small marginal size – will be eliminated based on a large number of artificially intelligent program trading systems that will mine the historical and currently released information identifying and exploiting trends. The process of the elimination of arbitrage opportunities will create vast concentrations of wealth within the companies that embrace the tools that automate this process. As new information sources become available for analysis, new arbitrages may be identified with increasing complexity. The abstraction of trading systems to automaically test and integrate new data sources will mark the last decades of financially advantageous investment in hedge funds. After that time, return will be a stochastic function of expected risk.