Tag Archives: trends

Invest in Biotech and Information Sciences

If we invest heavily in biotechnology and information services companies (especially genomics, networked centralized computing, neurology, neural network predictive applications, and nerve regeneration) in the next 50 years, many currently living people may have an opportunity to achieve substantially improved and lengthened quality of life and indefinitely extended sentience.

It’s more than a financial return, but it can still be evaluated financially. The return on these investments should be calculated as the return on the securities themselves, plus the return on your other investments over the period of time that your life and investment horizon are extended. It is possible, then, that the net return on biotech and information science investments may be substancially higher than the direct value change for those investment securities.

SOAP, .net, and the ubiquitous internet cloud

Microsoft’s recent major push to develop the .net platform is an attempt to aggregate and brand all internet services into the Windows operating system. And it just might work. SOAP and .net are sometimes referred to as a “cloud” because of the distributed nature of the processing; your machine accesses a server which renders your display based on stored interface components and applications that are potentially stored on different machines anywhere else, controlled by anyone else. I think that it is a key new technology and that it will play an important role in the development of communications technology in the next few years.

What is this technology? And where does it take us?


SOAP and .net use techniques that enable distributed computing and webserving. In other words, they allow web applications to run on independent computers and independent of the look and feel of the web site. Applications developers will want to adopt this technology because it means that they can focus on the application and spend less time on the user interface. Portals will want to adopt this technology because it means that they can integrate many external services and make them available to their users. Microsoft, I believe, is in the process of building this technology into their Windows operating system in order to enable any internet application to be run without leaving the Microsoft-controlled environment.

There is a programming design heuristic that is based on the separation of model, content, controller, and view. SOAP is analogous as it enables the separation of the model. The dominance of this design for programming was very strong, and similarly, the dominance that SOAP enables will likely be very strong. Effectively, The potential of XML is captured through the definition of protocols for the distributed exchange of applications.

What is the risk?

If .net is successful in becoming the dominant channel for web services, then there is a strong likelihood that Windows will combine the operating system and portal functionality to provide the complete computing experience. Microsoft will have the ability to target services, advertising, applications, communications, and other information to each individual. Further, web services will be conveniently available through integrated Windows applications, reducing the need for browser-based web access. Specifically, it will mean that the internet will be able to be re-faced with a Microsoft-branded front-end, and a selection of web services defined by Microsoft.

What is the potential?

In order for .net to become only one of many popular web service aggregators, the SOAP protocol must never give advantage to Microsoft over other aggregators. If SOAP (which stands for simple object access protocol) remains open in such a way that any portal can aggregate any SOAP enabled web service, then the result will be wonderful. Specifically, it will mean that the entire internet will be able to be re-faced with a customizable front-end, and your selection of web services will be personalized and context dependent based on specifications you select.

Centralized Computing Platform

The world needs a platform for centralized computing that enables anyone to commercially publish their intellectual properties through any networked device using their own interface. This platform could be supplemented with advanced and semantic search accross all IP, as well as access to any distributed web service through SOAP.

Wearable Computing

Digital Convergence is about accessing the functionality of a broad array of devices from fewer more pervasive devices. The logical result of SOAP, wireless connectivity, open source software, and increasingly compact hardware is a trend toward a small wearable computer with access to any web service, including personal information, through a customizable interface. In combination with remote device control, biofeedback input devices, and systems for enhancing senses, the implications are astounding.

The Future of Productivity and Culture

Productivity will continue to increase – and at an increasing rate. This trend inevitably leads us to the average person only working a small amount to support their basic needs. While this will be true on average, in reality we will most likely see a few individuals working very productively and supporting the needs of growing groups of underemployed people.

Social safety nets will become easier to support (assuming that the standard of social safety does not increase faster than the improvements in productivity). Vast portions of the population will stop working. Cultural differences will become pronounced as individuals and groups ‘specialize’ in non-work activities. Quality and breadth of entertainment, interpersonal interaction, and self-expression will greatly improve.

There will be a growing conflict between the highly productive individuals and companies and the large numbers of people who are underemployed. Managing this conflict will be a major political task.