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Media megatrends

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Exerpt from: The Long Tail
See also: Telecom Watchlist / Industrial Evolution

Telecom Watchlist / Industrial Evolution

There are clear innovations and implementations of current technology that can be safely called inevitable. One of these is ubiquitous wireless. We will be surrounded by secure broadband available by subscription, and compatible with wireless devices. Wireless devices compatible with broadband will include laptops, PDAs, phones, and electronics built into vehicles, etc.

If this is true, then some industries will join the buggy-whip industry:

Phone companies: why pay for phone service if your wireless phone is a tiny part of a cheap broadband service. Internet traffic incurred by telephone quality duplex audio is a drop in the bucket.

Cable providers: If I have access to streaming video straight from the media companies, why pay a cable company for anything? I might pay HBO for access to their channel, but there is no room for Comcast. The old line between broadcast and cable TV will be irrelevant.

Traditional and Satellite Radio: Internet radio is already catching on. When devices and wireless grow to maturity, there is no need for radio. Your music preferences will be targeted much more specifically than a set of 20 FM stations can satisfy, making the listening experience far better. The 2-way directionality of streaming radio (broadcasters know what IP addresses are listening, and when) make the value proposition for advertisers far better. Finally, the global nature of IP eliminates the problems of range and signal quality.

I don’t mean to sound gloomy, in fact, this is not a gloomy forecast. Leaving horse drawn buggies for cars was a major milestone in economic advancement. So too, leaving single-application wires for IP-based wireless broadband is going to be a great milestone. Communications technology is the lubricant of innovation and trade. I would expect global growth to accelerate into these advancements, and remain at a generally accelerated pace thereafter.

In this speculative possible state of the world, investors might benefit from:

underweight companies with revenues largely based on phone, cable, and radio

underweight traditional-radio advertising companies

overweight equities

overweight internet advertisers and IP-intelligence aggregators

overweight internet applications providers

What Does Ubiquitous Broadband Mean for the Telecoms and the Cable Industry?

Verizon prevented municipal WiFi networks in Pennsylvania based on ‘unfair competition.’ Verizon has a clear reason: municipal wireless broadband would obviate the phone lines. It would obviate cable companies, too.

Ubiquitous broadband – no matter who provides it – will mean that voice, video, and data services are available through the air. Traditional phone, radio, cable, and other media distribution is disintermediated. Storage servers and a pretty front-end indexed by search engines could handle all of recorded media. Interactive media on TCP/IP replaces and moves forward phones, video conferencing, etc.

What does it cost to serve wireless broadband? Because of the ease of offering secure access to wide geographic areas, competition will rapidly draw the price toward the cost. The total revenues of these firms are negligible compared to the cumulative revenues of phone companies, cable companies, cellular and DSL providers, and radio companies (including satellite).

The consolidation of industries and shrinking pie are bad enough, but the elimination of barriers to entry and the fall of the profit margin make the shift a major net detraction financially. The breadth of industries are waving investment warning flags. There may be winners as well as losers, but how long is it going to take you personally to migrate from your cable bill, phone bill, cellular bill, ISP bill, and satellite radio fee toward VoIP phone in your PDA and a media server in your PC at $50/month?

To make matters worse, the access fee might drop to free when the service bundles hosting and storage. If they get to track you, target advertising, and other applications, they could reasonably pay consumers to be in their network. In other words, the money is in the nodes not the lines between them.

Historic Debt will lead to Inflation

I’ve talked about the debt and inflation before, but the following might scare you:

Although the level of deficit is the largest in history, it is not the largest when measured as a percentage of GDP. The current deficit is about 4.3% of GDP. This is high by historic standards, but has been exceeded in 6 of the fiscal years since 1962. BUT the private sector is larger than it has ever been, and issuing more debt than ever before. Total $US debt when combining private and public debt is about $35 trillion, or 300% of GDP.

Don’t think that inflation is soley a function of public debt. No, foreign investment is a competition among all capital securities, and it is net US debt interest owed as a percentage of GDP (as well as US GDP as a percentage of global production, and other factors) that underly inflation.

Population Density and Political Affiliation

These are some of the best election maps I’ve seen. They demonstrate a very strong relationship in the 2004 Presidential election, and I’d love to hear some insight:

Why is population density so clearly related to political affiliation?

Should we be surprised that progressive politics are so highly related to economic progress? What can we learn from that?

Why are such large parts of the population voting against their financial self-interests? Wealthy cities and the major financial centers are voting against the party that will lower their capital gains and dividend taxes. Financially troubled states are voting against the party that will provide national health care and invest in their children’s educations.

Is morality really the question? Massachusetts has the lowest divorce rate of any of the 50 states. And Texas has the highest. Are words more important than action? How is it that speaking softly and doing the right thing can be painted so badly?

Finally, how is it that the kindness, thoughtfulness, hard work, and generosity of the Democratic Party can be portayed as weakness? How is it that the Republican Party with those same qualities is portrayed as heartless? Is it still about cowboys vs. indians, suits vs. hippies, us vs. them? Has anyone noticed that we’re on the same team and there are plenty of real bad guys out there?