Tag Archives: society

The evolution of human evolution

Advancements in technology and medical sciences have changed the basis on which evolutionary dominance is measured. It used to be that more physical and social characteristics were dominant when labor was more physical and relationship communities were more stable. Abstract mental fitness (Especially in areas of mathematics, process dynamics, technology adoption, and forecasting) has become a much more important factor in society. At the same time, other factors that are less well considered are having an important impact on human propagation. For example, free-time and moral comfort lead to increased average birth rates.

War has discriminatly killed and ended the genetic branch of those who fit the military standards of physical and mental fitness. The result is that the desirable characteristics that the military has identified as valuable in the event of conflict are relatively diminished in the world population. Characteristics such as good vision, strong muscles, dexterity, endurance, focus, ability to learn languages, spatial intuition, coordination, and communication skills are less common than they naturally would be in people. That’s not to say that the military or society had any choice when recruiting our finest to protect our way of life, but it should be in our minds when we make decisions about how we fight. Is it worth harming the evolutionary process of humanity when we could, albeit for additional financial cost, fight our battles with a far higher degree of safety for the innocent? Human evolution has been reversed by this process, and the genetic pool that perpetuates humanity has been damaged by the wars we could not keep ourselves from fighting.

The U.S. Government should implement an Investment Company, Financed by a Federal Corporate Income Tax

Technology has changed market dynamics, and new economies of scale are making it increasingly hard for small businesses to compete.  National and international communications and transportation have increased the global nature of businesses, so scale and international optimization of supply chains make enormous advantage for the largest businesses. Another important example is the nearly infinite ratio of fixed to marginal costs in information businesses that leads to increasing pressure toward consolidation.  Meanwhile, the value of public companies shifting from 40% intangible assets in 1996 to 75% in 2000. These forces push toward anticompetitive oligopolies, and are newly strengthened because of the new communications and transportation infrastructures.

Unfortunately, when you combine the globalizing economy with massive consolidation pressures, the natural equilibrium is a monopoly.  A monopoly can act in its own best interest and harm consumers.  America has a long history of working to ensure consumer markets remain competitive.

If you want to reduce the burden on the Federal Trade Commission lawyers, then we should implement a structural incentive that acts to offset any negative changes in the economic dynamics.   Specifically, we could create a new incentive for competitive markets.

This can be achieved with a progressive federal corporate income tax that finances an investment company and, in turn, finances companies that can improve competitive pricing or innovate.   The progressive tax could begin at a high profit level so that competition would be encouraged. Not a very popular suggestion among stockholders in the largest corporations, I suspect, but the benefit in the long run would be very great.

Necessity is the mother of invention, and monopolists can sustain their position with far less innovation than occurs in competitive markets. We will see advancements in communications, transportation, environmental protections, health care, entertainment, safety, and even life span. These innovations will occur inevitably, but it is our decision as a society how we structure ourselves to best approach this evolution.

Note – The Government-financed investment company should probably be independent in a similar model to the federal reserve.

Note – The competitive application for the funds of the Government-financed investment company avoids the incentive problems associated with socialist policies.

Note – The investment company would consist of many competing portfolios, managed by accountable teams, and with regular culling of underperformers.

Note – This would be a particularly effective economic stimulus mechanism because it supports high velocity of money in productive markets and more directly drives employment.

Note – The enormous potential financial gain from the investment company would be reinvested and used to reduce corporate, individual, and other tax rates.  It has the potential to create a self-financing government.

Note – The investments of the investment company would be direct – new equity or debt capital – not the purchase of existing securities.

 

 

Evolving systems of life and electronics

We marvel at the power and potential of digital computing, mechanical tools, and computer interfaces, but is it any wonder compared to the analogous systems that have evolved naturally with biological rather than electronic mechanisms? Each of us is an independent system–with our own processor, frame, muscle structures for output, and sensory organs for input. Humans thankfully evolve because each of us is different, and different from the bodies that came before us. Further, our likelihood for passing on characteristics to future generations is related to our viability and the functions of our biological systems. We are biological machines.

But biology as we know it is limited by physical constraints on our senses, memory, and life-spans. It may even be the case that biological imagination and creativity are limited by the inherent constraints of neurological chemistry, however, I don’t imagine this is the case 🙂 I cannot see 3000 miles away without a camera and transmission, and I cannot remember the URL of the 473rd web page I ever viewed without electronic logs.

It seems clear that humans are developing electronic and mechanical tools to move beyond the constraints of our biological selves. We use electronics to extend our senses, empower our expressiveness, assist our memory, automate our processing, and improve our life-span. It seems inevitable that the evolutions of biological and electronic systems will begin to merge in order to take advantage of the best characteristics of each. To reach such a state, the interface between these systems needs to be improved. We are working on it already, and it is a ways off, but simply a matter of time. We are truly fortunate that the basic input and output signals of our biological nervous system are electrical.

The Future of Productivity and Culture

Productivity will continue to increase – and at an increasing rate. This trend inevitably leads us to the average person only working a small amount to support their basic needs. While this will be true on average, in reality we will most likely see a few individuals working very productively and supporting the needs of growing groups of underemployed people.

Social safety nets will become easier to support (assuming that the standard of social safety does not increase faster than the improvements in productivity). Vast portions of the population will stop working. Cultural differences will become pronounced as individuals and groups ‘specialize’ in non-work activities. Quality and breadth of entertainment, interpersonal interaction, and self-expression will greatly improve.

There will be a growing conflict between the highly productive individuals and companies and the large numbers of people who are underemployed. Managing this conflict will be a major political task.

Forecast Changes in Asset Values based on Measurable Cultural influences

The sum total of the media contributed to the internet approximates the attention of society during that period. Then analysis of this media indicates trends in attention and preferences. These trends create signals about the directions of values for securities and other assets. Frequency and trend directions of keyword usage, volume of content in certain classifications, and level and type of contribution of media files vs. sector and industry pricing trends are recommended starting points for analytical comparison.