Tag Archives: politics

GPS, as Political Issue

Posted on July 23, 2002 | Leave a comment

This article in Wired focuses on some interesting military strategic issues around Galileo, the new European satellite navigation system that is supposed to provide consumers around the world with navigation services that supplement and improve on the accuracy of the existing Global Positioning System (GPS) beginning in 2008. The goal for Galileo is to make Europe independent of non-European space infrastructure for strategic and commercial applications associated with space systems. This drive for autonomy is rooted in the idea that space is an essential part of a nation’s infrastructure in the 21st century, just as railways were in the 19th century and roads and power grids were in the 20th. The problem is that Galileo has been assigned two small frequency bands, E1 and E2, which the US military wants the ability to jam if necessary. But because these bands bracket the US GPS, jamming signals in them might risk obstructing a new US military GPS signal called M-code, which will be broadcast in two parts at the edges of the existing GPS band. Some are worried that putting encrypted signals onto the E1 and E2 bands, where it can hide in the M-code’s skirts, may make them unjammable, neutralizing a key tactical advantage for the US military.

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Posted in Public Policy, Tech, The Future

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Informatics Used to Manipulate Politics

Posted on May 1, 2002 | Leave a comment

The Economist is publishing an article describing how information about demographics is leading to an algorythmic method of “redistricting” to enable very meaningful manipulation of state-wide votes.

The article provides examples, and even claims “Weirdly shaped districts… are signs that a crime has been committed. Again, start with Florida. This year, the Republican-controlled legislature has proposed a map with 18 Republican-leaning seats and seven Democratic ones. But as the 2000 presidential vote showed, Florida’s electorate is split perfectly down the middle. The map has been rigged outrageously to favour the Republicans. ”

The Article also discusses the cases of Michigan, Texas, and California.

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Posted in Law, Public Policy, Tech

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The Future of Productivity and Culture

Posted on March 25, 2001 | Leave a comment

Productivity will continue to increase – and at an increasing rate. This trend inevitably leads us to the average person only working a small amount to support their basic needs. While this will be true on average, in reality we will most likely see a few individuals working very productively and supporting the needs of growing groups of underemployed people.

Social safety nets will become easier to support (assuming that the standard of social safety does not increase faster than the improvements in productivity). Vast portions of the population will stop working. Cultural differences will become pronounced as individuals and groups ‘specialize’ in non-work activities. Quality and breadth of entertainment, interpersonal interaction, and self-expression will greatly improve.

There will be a growing conflict between the highly productive individuals and companies and the large numbers of people who are underemployed. Managing this conflict will be a major political task.

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Posted in Economics, Freakonomics, Just for fun, Psychology, Public Policy, Taxes, The Future

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The probability of the extinction of humanity is increasing

Posted on January 31, 2001 | Leave a comment

As communities overlap more and more, the unanticipated toxins that destroy cultures have a greater likelihood of spreading to other cultures.

When the Roman Empire poisoned itself with lead, for example, it destroyed a large culture, but not everyone. When the plague killed 1/3 of the world’s population, it even impacted the economic prosperity of Africa as the limited trade routes fell apart. If today’s aspartame (or any other component of our environment) were to cause damage to our evolutionary viability, it would vastly destroy the population of the world. Coke, for example, sells to just about every corner of the globe. As this occurs with more foods, drugs, medical procedures, manufacturing byproducts, and societal norms, we increase the likelihood of breaking the chain of humanity.

It may make sense to restrict the propagation of new products at some point in order to protect populations from negative ramifications. It also seems wise to maintain different food and drug administrations in different countries as long as there is unpredictability in long-term implications. The responsibility of the food and drug administration will become more and more important as similar ingredients become a part of the diet of larger and larger part of the population.

Chemical, biological, nuclear, nano-, and genetic weaponry is increasing in effectiveness. It will be possible in the next decades to produce agents that will kill all life with genetic code that matches any set of very specific genetic or other criteria.

This is really scary to me. I don’t know how to stop it. Similar to the way that software viruses and anti-virus software battle for dominance, new weapons and the protections against them will battle for dominance… in this case, with lives on the line. Over time the technology for constructing microscopic, cheap, and effective weapons will become more accessible. Columbine has the potential to be much worse. Assassination could be as easy as sending a nanoterrorist or finding a hair and releasing an airborne virus with a single target. It makes me think something that rarely crosses my mind: that the government should enforce involvement.

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Posted in Economics, Freakonomics, Personal, Public Policy, Science, Tech, The Future

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Global economic downturns are amplified by global communications and consolidation of media

Posted on January 31, 2001 | Leave a comment

Economic downturns are the result of coincident reductions in financial investments. They are marked by larger numbers of companies cutting back on their budgets, and by large numbers of investors who perceive value to be falling. When one individual makes a decision, it has negligible impact on the market (unless it’s Buffet!), but when large numbers of individuals act at the same time, the market moves. The more people are making the same decision at the same time, the equilibrium is shocked by more, too. In other words, the invisible hand becomes an invisible linebacker; pushing harder.

This means that when larger groups of people are influenced in the same ways by the same media, then the market and the economy are going to swing with greater magnitude.

Social inconsistency provides a healthy dissonance in the economic markets. Different consumer confidence levels and uncorrelated investment views ensure that the economic growth remains relatively stable. Just like many stocks in an index reduce the volatility of the index relative to the average volatility of the index components.

So, ironically, by improving the communications tools that make our economy function better, we are also increasing the magnitude and danger of economic downturns.

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Posted in Economics, Freakonomics, Investment, Media, Psychology, Public Policy, Stocks, The FED, The Future

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