Category Archives: Investment

Global economic downturns are amplified by global communications and consolidation of media

Economic downturns are the result of coincident reductions in financial investments. They are marked by larger numbers of companies cutting back on their budgets, and by large numbers of investors who perceive value to be falling. When one individual makes a decision, it has negligible impact on the market (unless it’s Buffet!), but when large numbers of individuals act at the same time, the market moves. The more people are making the same decision at the same time, the equilibrium is shocked by more, too. In other words, the invisible hand becomes an invisible linebacker; pushing harder.

This means that when larger groups of people are influenced in the same ways by the same media, then the market and the economy are going to swing with greater magnitude.

Social inconsistency provides a healthy dissonance in the economic markets. Different consumer confidence levels and uncorrelated investment views ensure that the economic growth remains relatively stable. Just like many stocks in an index reduce the volatility of the index relative to the average volatility of the index components.

So, ironically, by improving the communications tools that make our economy function better, we are also increasing the magnitude and danger of economic downturns.

Commerce in the 21st Century

The weight of value in the goods and services that make up commerce will shift toward the intangible. This includes media, communications, rights, and information services, primarily.

Musical Collaboration by Opt-in and Mass Beat Channels

There could be channels for each beat/tempo, and an unlimited number of contibutors could participate in the creation of music within each channel. Any listener could select the combination of contributors and listen to the mixed track. Popular and preset groups could simplify selection, and descriptive fields for contributors could help improve custom selections. Contributor-defined sub-channels could branch off from the public ones. This system would allow unlimited musical collaboration in a way that provides compatibility and flexibility on a global scale.

CD Repair Shop

The CDDB provides the identification of CD content based on track set characteristics. This is how your Winamp program can provide you with the CD track titles when you put a CD in your computer and are connected to the internet. CDs get scratched and damaged, and are cumbersom to travel with. With a large single centralized database of CDDB data and the associated MP3 files, a CD could act as a key to gain access to a set of MP3 files – available from anywhere. A user account could store a list of authorized CDs for any user. Each account would not require additional storage of MP3s – rather, simply a list of unique keys. Even damaged CDs could be converted to high quality (undamaged) MP3 files in less than a few seconds with this system. Barrier to entry is high, but marginal costs for volume users is low. User accounts would provide users with access to their CD libraries from any networked device.

Financial Markets Evolve

Arbitrages – even of very small marginal size – will be eliminated based on a large number of artificially intelligent program trading systems that will mine the historical and currently released information identifying and exploiting trends. The process of the elimination of arbitrage opportunities will create vast concentrations of wealth within the companies that embrace the tools that automate this process. As new information sources become available for analysis, new arbitrages may be identified with increasing complexity. The abstraction of trading systems to automaically test and integrate new data sources will mark the last decades of financially advantageous investment in hedge funds. After that time, return will be a stochastic function of expected risk.