Category Archives: Investment

Globalization

Improvements in communications and distribution of goods and services

Leads to

Increased benefits to the lowest marginal-cost producers,

And therefore

Increases the volume supplied by the lowest marginal-cost producers.

Concentration of production

Leads to

Concentrations of wealth

Concentrations of wealth

Lead to

demographic and cultural changes.

Also,

Increasing supply from the lowest marginal-cost producers

Leads to

lower prices.

Lower prices

Lead to

Reduction or elimination of the profit potential for less efficient producers,

and therefore

reduces the number of producers

As the number of producers shrinks

And

The distribution volumes of the lowest marginal-cost producers increases,

Then

The ratio of employees to employers increases.

This demographic shift

Leads to

a gradual, or sometimes rapid, cultural shift.

In addition,

Economies of scale (a core strategy in the minimization of marginal-costs)

Lead to

consolidation.

Gloablization has clear advantages as measured by efficiency and profitability, however, also involves the consolidation/alignment of cultures, practices, language, currencies, and other social and demographic factors.
If people want to lessen these cultural shifts caused by globalization, the dynamics or boundaries of capitalism would have to be modified:
either economies of scale would have to be disassociated with competitive advantage, or the regulations concerning consolidation and/or distribution will have to be more restrictive.
The first option is not realistic, and the second option would limit freedom to trade. Neither option appears very attractive.

The U.S. Government should implement an Investment Company, Financed by a Federal Corporate Income Tax

Technology has changed market dynamics, and new economies of scale are making it increasingly hard for small businesses to compete.  National and international communications and transportation have increased the global nature of businesses, so scale and international optimization of supply chains make enormous advantage for the largest businesses. Another important example is the nearly infinite ratio of fixed to marginal costs in information businesses that leads to increasing pressure toward consolidation.  Meanwhile, the value of public companies shifting from 40% intangible assets in 1996 to 75% in 2000. These forces push toward anticompetitive oligopolies, and are newly strengthened because of the new communications and transportation infrastructures.

Unfortunately, when you combine the globalizing economy with massive consolidation pressures, the natural equilibrium is a monopoly.  A monopoly can act in its own best interest and harm consumers.  America has a long history of working to ensure consumer markets remain competitive.

If you want to reduce the burden on the Federal Trade Commission lawyers, then we should implement a structural incentive that acts to offset any negative changes in the economic dynamics.   Specifically, we could create a new incentive for competitive markets.

This can be achieved with a progressive federal corporate income tax that finances an investment company and, in turn, finances companies that can improve competitive pricing or innovate.   The progressive tax could begin at a high profit level so that competition would be encouraged. Not a very popular suggestion among stockholders in the largest corporations, I suspect, but the benefit in the long run would be very great.

Necessity is the mother of invention, and monopolists can sustain their position with far less innovation than occurs in competitive markets. We will see advancements in communications, transportation, environmental protections, health care, entertainment, safety, and even life span. These innovations will occur inevitably, but it is our decision as a society how we structure ourselves to best approach this evolution.

Note – The Government-financed investment company should probably be independent in a similar model to the federal reserve.

Note – The competitive application for the funds of the Government-financed investment company avoids the incentive problems associated with socialist policies.

Note – The investment company would consist of many competing portfolios, managed by accountable teams, and with regular culling of underperformers.

Note – This would be a particularly effective economic stimulus mechanism because it supports high velocity of money in productive markets and more directly drives employment.

Note – The enormous potential financial gain from the investment company would be reinvested and used to reduce corporate, individual, and other tax rates.  It has the potential to create a self-financing government.

Note – The investments of the investment company would be direct – new equity or debt capital – not the purchase of existing securities.

 

 

Sun Microsystems should acquire Yahoo

Sun Microsystems should acquire Yahooo! and integrate its web services into StarOffice and Webtop using SOAP or XML-RPC. The resulting desktop/webtop service would eliminate the need for many local applications, would revolutionize the sharabilility of files and information, and would free us to work with our personal(ized) computer from any computer. Eventually, all Webtop services would be publicly SOAP enabled, eliminating the interface maintenance burden and enabling open “skinning” possibilities.

Cointegration improvements

Cointegration typically uses the price information for two related securities, and provides relative value signals. As with traditional technical trading strategies, changes to the fundamentals create a risk of bad relative value signals. With 2-security cointegration, this risk is doubled because changes to the fundamentals of either company can skew the relative value signal. However, this problem can be cut in half by creating baskets (portfolios) of securities and running the cointegration analysis with each security against the basket. This effectively generates signals which are skewed only by changes to the fundamentals of the individual security. Additionally, the required correlation matrix for the permuted set of security combinations can be replaced by a single vector of correlations – greatly improving calculation efficiency and extending the analysis processing potential.

To improve upon normalizing data to % changes, factors typically associated with beta may also provide better signalling data. For example, as the size of a company grows over the course of a few years, its price volitility may fall. Similarly, as market cap grows, the price change correlations may increase relative to larger cap baskets and decrease relative to smaller cap baskets.

By backtesting, optimal trigger strengths and bet sizes can be measured, however, given the correlation coefficients, volitilities, number of positions, and risk preferences, probabalistically optimal bet sizes may provide better results.

Invest in Biotech and Information Sciences

If we invest heavily in biotechnology and information services companies (especially genomics, networked centralized computing, neurology, neural network predictive applications, and nerve regeneration) in the next 50 years, many currently living people may have an opportunity to achieve substantially improved and lengthened quality of life and indefinitely extended sentience.

It’s more than a financial return, but it can still be evaluated financially. The return on these investments should be calculated as the return on the securities themselves, plus the return on your other investments over the period of time that your life and investment horizon are extended. It is possible, then, that the net return on biotech and information science investments may be substancially higher than the direct value change for those investment securities.