Category Archives: Economics

US Housing Market is Still Collapsing

The Economic Collapse has put together a stupendous list of 20 startling facts about the US housing market:

1. According to Zillow, 28.4% of all single-family homes with a mortgage in the United States are now underwater.

2. Zillow has announced that the average price of a home in the U.S. is about 8% lower than it was a year ago;

3. U.S. home prices have now fallen a whopping 33% from where they were at during the peak of the housing bubble.

4. During the first quarter of 2011, home values declined at the fastest rate since late 2008.

5. According to Zillow, more than 55% of all single-family homes with a mortgage in Atlanta have negative equity and more than 68% of all single-family homes with a mortgage in Phoenix have negative equity.

6. U.S. home values have fallen an astounding 6.3 trillion dollars since the housing crisis first began.

7. In February, U.S. housing starts experienced their largest decline in 27 years.

8. New home sales in the United States are now down 80% from the peak in July 2005.

9. Historically, the percentage of residential mortgages in foreclosure in the United States has tended to hover between 1 and 1.5 percent. Today, it is up around 4.5 percent.

10. According to RealtyTrac, foreclosure filings in the United States are projected to increase by another 20 percent in 2011.

11. It is estimated that 25% of all mortgages in Miami-Dade County are “in serious distress and headed for either foreclosure or short sale“.

12. Two years ago, the average U.S. homeowner that was being foreclosed upon had not made a mortgage payment in 11 months. Today, the average U.S. homeowner that is being foreclosed upon has not made a mortgage payment in 17 months.

13. Sales of foreclosed homes now represent an all-time record 23.7% of the market.

14. 4.5 million home loans are now either in some stage of foreclosure or are at least 90 days delinquent.

15. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, at least 8 million Americans are currently at least one month behind on their mortgage payments.

16. In September 2008, 33% of Americans knew someone who had been foreclosed upon or who was facing the threat of foreclosure. Today that number has risen to 48 percent.

17. During the first quarter of 2011, less new homes were sold in the U.S. than in any three month period ever recorded.

18According to a recent census report, 13% of all homes in the United States are currently sitting empty.

19. In 1996, 89% of Americans believed that it was better to own a home than to rent one. Today that number has fallen to 63 percent.

20. According to Zillow, the United States has been in a “housing recession” for 57 straight months without an end in sight.

Source: The Economic Collapse: :”Don’t Buy A House In 2011 Before You Read These 20 Wacky Statistics About The U.S. Real Estate Crisis

LinkedIn IPO: the Public Premium

Facebook has been leading a cult of companies avoiding IPOs.  The claim is that the cost of regulation and transparency is unnecessary and inefficient.  Private markets like Second Market have grown tremendously.  This may be all wrong, and let’s hope so.

The IPO of LinkedIn demonstrated a public premium: public markets offered a higher valuation than the private markets did.   Valuations can be higher because discount rates are lower.  Think about it: public investors get maybe 15% in a strong year.  Private Equity investors are organized around discount rates of 20% or higher.    If your discount rate is so high, future profits are simply not worth as much.

There is another important reason for a public premium: regulated standards of conduct and transparency.  When owners (shareholders) are more informed and confident, risk is reduced and value goes up.

The reason to hope this is the case is for the public good.  If IPOs and public listings are shown to be a rational — because the cost of compliance is less than the valuation premium — then more companies will be public and capitalism will be more broadly accessible. Also, this will lead to higher overall investment rates and stronger economic growth.

Long term investment strategy blather

“The FED has been daring us, effectively, to go out and buy risky assets for the last 2 years”

“It will be the creditor that tightens global liquidity.  Not the debtor.”

I don’t agree with Russell Napier’s ultimate conclusion about S&P hitting 400, but this interview is full of gems:

http://video.ft.com/v/946244201001/Long-View-Historian-sees-S-P-fall-to-400

(it’s part of a series: http://video.ft.com/v/940727417001/Long-View-A-gathering-storm)

The reason that I don’t agree with his conclusion is that I think emerging market credit expansion will be harder to control.  I think credit expansion will be highly private, opaque, poorly regulated, and broadly accepted by the population.  Expansion of credit is an expansion of the money supply.  During which, emerging market consumption and inflation will be higher than expected.  Corporate profit growth would likely rise faster in that scenario, so downside risk should be protected to some extent by strong corporate balance sheets.

Or of course it could go the other way.  🙂

Bullish on POT

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (Ticker:POT)

The run up in the market size for technology over the last 4 decades coincided with the dawn of an Information Age.  We are now in the dawn of a Biological Revolution and Potash is a valuable and constrained ingredient.

If you have 20 or more years to invest, the world economy will look different when you sell than it does today.  As agriculture demand expands to fit an emerging global population that doesn’t starve, production and productivity has to rise.  Potash is the constraining factor.  I expect demand to rise strongly for decades and, because supply is constrained (with what we know now), prices should rise.

With a profit margin at 30% and an operating margin at 38%, they achieve ROE of 28%.  Great numbers for a company with $6billion in revenues.  Their dividend isn’t much to look at, but with quarterly revenue growth of 68% since last year, reinvesting in growth is a good move on their part.

Net Neutrality: No Compromise

To begin talking about Net Neutrality, it helps to clarify what the internet is. It’s simply data sent via TCP/IP (the protocol for sending data through routers). Some people host web sites, others connect to their company e-mail, others do other things – it’s all the internet.

Understanding that the internet is just a connection using TCP/IP, then Net Neutrality is simple, too. Net Neutrality simply means that your ISP may not interfere with the internet. They may not censor your packets (the data that is sent via TCP/IP). This means they can’t censor your news, keep you off of Skype, restrict your sending and receiving, or otherwise interfere with your communications.

Any compromise on this is wrong for two reasons: 1) Your ISP should not have the right to interfere with your free speech, and 2) ISPs should not be able to tax the value creation of the media industry.

ISPs should not be able to interfere with consumer access to media companies, nor tax those companies for access to consumers. ISPs should not be able to interfere with our speech or block our access to the speech of others.

ISPs are in the business of providing internet access, but they don’t own the internet; any attempts to eliminate net neutrality would violate our consumer rights and hurt the economy.