Category Archives: Freakonomics

Globalization

Improvements in communications and distribution of goods and services

Leads to

Increased benefits to the lowest marginal-cost producers,

And therefore

Increases the volume supplied by the lowest marginal-cost producers.

Concentration of production

Leads to

Concentrations of wealth

Concentrations of wealth

Lead to

demographic and cultural changes.

Also,

Increasing supply from the lowest marginal-cost producers

Leads to

lower prices.

Lower prices

Lead to

Reduction or elimination of the profit potential for less efficient producers,

and therefore

reduces the number of producers

As the number of producers shrinks

And

The distribution volumes of the lowest marginal-cost producers increases,

Then

The ratio of employees to employers increases.

This demographic shift

Leads to

a gradual, or sometimes rapid, cultural shift.

In addition,

Economies of scale (a core strategy in the minimization of marginal-costs)

Lead to

consolidation.

Gloablization has clear advantages as measured by efficiency and profitability, however, also involves the consolidation/alignment of cultures, practices, language, currencies, and other social and demographic factors.
If people want to lessen these cultural shifts caused by globalization, the dynamics or boundaries of capitalism would have to be modified:
either economies of scale would have to be disassociated with competitive advantage, or the regulations concerning consolidation and/or distribution will have to be more restrictive.
The first option is not realistic, and the second option would limit freedom to trade. Neither option appears very attractive.

The U.S. Government should implement an Investment Company, Financed by a Federal Corporate Income Tax

Technology has changed market dynamics, and new economies of scale are making it increasingly hard for small businesses to compete.  National and international communications and transportation have increased the global nature of businesses, so scale and international optimization of supply chains make enormous advantage for the largest businesses. Another important example is the nearly infinite ratio of fixed to marginal costs in information businesses that leads to increasing pressure toward consolidation.  Meanwhile, the value of public companies shifting from 40% intangible assets in 1996 to 75% in 2000. These forces push toward anticompetitive oligopolies, and are newly strengthened because of the new communications and transportation infrastructures.

Unfortunately, when you combine the globalizing economy with massive consolidation pressures, the natural equilibrium is a monopoly.  A monopoly can act in its own best interest and harm consumers.  America has a long history of working to ensure consumer markets remain competitive.

If you want to reduce the burden on the Federal Trade Commission lawyers, then we should implement a structural incentive that acts to offset any negative changes in the economic dynamics.   Specifically, we could create a new incentive for competitive markets.

This can be achieved with a progressive federal corporate income tax that finances an investment company and, in turn, finances companies that can improve competitive pricing or innovate.   The progressive tax could begin at a high profit level so that competition would be encouraged. Not a very popular suggestion among stockholders in the largest corporations, I suspect, but the benefit in the long run would be very great.

Necessity is the mother of invention, and monopolists can sustain their position with far less innovation than occurs in competitive markets. We will see advancements in communications, transportation, environmental protections, health care, entertainment, safety, and even life span. These innovations will occur inevitably, but it is our decision as a society how we structure ourselves to best approach this evolution.

Note – The Government-financed investment company should probably be independent in a similar model to the federal reserve.

Note – The competitive application for the funds of the Government-financed investment company avoids the incentive problems associated with socialist policies.

Note – The investment company would consist of many competing portfolios, managed by accountable teams, and with regular culling of underperformers.

Note – This would be a particularly effective economic stimulus mechanism because it supports high velocity of money in productive markets and more directly drives employment.

Note – The enormous potential financial gain from the investment company would be reinvested and used to reduce corporate, individual, and other tax rates.  It has the potential to create a self-financing government.

Note – The investments of the investment company would be direct – new equity or debt capital – not the purchase of existing securities.

 

 

Invest in Biotech and Information Sciences

If we invest heavily in biotechnology and information services companies (especially genomics, networked centralized computing, neurology, neural network predictive applications, and nerve regeneration) in the next 50 years, many currently living people may have an opportunity to achieve substantially improved and lengthened quality of life and indefinitely extended sentience.

It’s more than a financial return, but it can still be evaluated financially. The return on these investments should be calculated as the return on the securities themselves, plus the return on your other investments over the period of time that your life and investment horizon are extended. It is possible, then, that the net return on biotech and information science investments may be substancially higher than the direct value change for those investment securities.

The Future of Productivity and Culture

Productivity will continue to increase – and at an increasing rate. This trend inevitably leads us to the average person only working a small amount to support their basic needs. While this will be true on average, in reality we will most likely see a few individuals working very productively and supporting the needs of growing groups of underemployed people.

Social safety nets will become easier to support (assuming that the standard of social safety does not increase faster than the improvements in productivity). Vast portions of the population will stop working. Cultural differences will become pronounced as individuals and groups ‘specialize’ in non-work activities. Quality and breadth of entertainment, interpersonal interaction, and self-expression will greatly improve.

There will be a growing conflict between the highly productive individuals and companies and the large numbers of people who are underemployed. Managing this conflict will be a major political task.

Forecast Changes in Asset Values based on Measurable Cultural influences

The sum total of the media contributed to the internet approximates the attention of society during that period. Then analysis of this media indicates trends in attention and preferences. These trends create signals about the directions of values for securities and other assets. Frequency and trend directions of keyword usage, volume of content in certain classifications, and level and type of contribution of media files vs. sector and industry pricing trends are recommended starting points for analytical comparison.